Published: September 14, 2026
MONROVIA — Liberia is poised to cross the $1 billion revenue mark Monday toward its original $1.2 billion domestic revenue target, after reported collections reached $997.43 million as of Sept. 13 — just $2.57 million short of the milestone.
By Lennart Dodoo | News Analysis
The remaining amount puts the threshold within reach on Sept. 14.
The LRA’s original domestic revenue target was $1.176 billion, roughly $1.2 billion, within an initially approved national budget of about $1.25 billion. The authority has since referred to a $1.3 billion domestic revenue target. Monday’s prospective milestone concerns revenue performance, rather than approval of a new billion-dollar budget.
The domestic tax and customs figures total $967.69 million, leaving a $29.75 million difference that appears to include carryover.
The LRA’s August account puts 2025 revenue at $848 million, up from $699 million in 2024 — an increase of about 21% before this year’s major concession payment.
“By September 2026, we will hit the $1 billion mark in domestic revenue,” Finance Minister Augustine Kpehe Ngafuan said at the launch of the authority’s strategic plan. He also called for sustaining collections above that threshold.
The IMF’s third review of Liberia’s economic program estimated that tax revenue rose to 15.9% of gross domestic product in 2025, from 14.5% in 2024.
In August, it reported deploying its automated customs system to 11 of 17 customs offices and its integrated tax administration system to five of 18 tax offices. Expanding those systems could make payment easier and strengthen the government’s ability to identify liabilities and follow up on unpaid taxes.
Still, the size and timing of this year’s advance cannot be explained without ArcelorMittal.
The IMF confirmed that a mining company paid a one-time $200 million concession fee in March. ArcelorMittal’s January announcement of its amended agreement identifies that amount as payment for an extension of mining rights and reserved railway capacity. The agreement extends to 2050, with a right to renew for another 25 years.
That single payment is equivalent to roughly one-fifth of the dashboard’s $997.43 million total. Subtracting it leaves about $797.43 million on the same accounting basis.
The payment represents a substantial return secured from a major concession. Its fiscal character matters, however: Liberia received money for rights extending far beyond the current budget year. It cannot assume that the same payment will arrive annually to support permanent spending commitments.
ArcelorMittal said its expansion would increase annual iron ore shipments from about 5 million metric tons to 20 million in 2026. If sustained, higher production could broaden the base for royalties and other payments. The eventual public return will depend on production, prices, costs, and the agreement’s fiscal terms.
An additional metric reported by The Liberian Investigator shows how heavily large mining operators feature in the recorded inflows. It lists about $270.97 million for ArcelorMittal and $100.75 million for Bea Mountain across their appearances in monthly top-10 rankings. Together, those entries total $371.71 million, equivalent to more than one-third of the headline domestic revenue tally.
Bea Mountain appears in all nine monthly reporting periods, including the partial September period. Orange Liberia’s listed entries total $28.35 million, while petroleum businesses and other commercial operators also contribute substantial amounts.
In its July assessment, IMF staff projected 5.5% economic growth for 2026, driven by mining, construction and manufacturing, and said fiscal results continued to exceed program expectations. It identified the planned introduction of value-added tax in 2027 and mining tax reforms as critical to sustaining domestic revenue.
Those reforms matter because reaching $1 billion once and making it a dependable annual foundation require different things. A large concession payment can bring a milestone forward. Maintaining the gains requires a broader, more productive economy and a tax system that collects consistently and fairly.
The World Bank’s newly released Liberia Public Finance Review identifies considerable room for improvement. It estimates a tax compliance gap of about 3% of GDP and projects that combined revenue and spending reforms could generate annual fiscal gains equivalent to 3.9% to 5.3% of GDP by 2029-30. Those are potential gains from implementation, not money immediately available for spending.
According to the report, capital budget execution averaged just 33% between 2018 and 2025. The historical weakness suggests that collecting more money will have limited impact unless government agencies can prepare, procure and complete the investments it is meant to finance.
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